Zambia's Solar Surge Lifts Power Capacity by 945 MW, But the Grid Must Catch Up

Zambia's power sector has changed shape in just two years. Installed generation capacity has climbed from 3,777 MW in 2024 to 4,722.3 MW today, an increase of roughly 945 MW, according to figures presented at the 2026 Energy Forum for Africa in Lusaka and reported by the Lusaka Times on 7 October.

Almost all of that growth came from the sun. Installed solar capacity rose from 178 MW in 2024 to 1,027.5 MW, an addition of about 850 MW that has already surpassed the 1,000 MW target set for 2026. For a country that has long relied heavily on hydropower, and has felt the strain when rainfall falls short, the result is a visibly more diversified generation mix.

President Hakainde Hichilema's speech, read at the forum by Vice President Mutale Nalumango, credited the result to policy direction, private investment, project development, financing and implementation all working together. In his words, the increase "demonstrates the scale and speed of solar expansion." The Energy Forum for Africa (EFFA) platform, said its chief executive Hope Chanda, has actualised 700 MW of solar projects towards a 1,000 MW target, while 600 MW of thermal projects have also materialised since the last conference.

The pipeline is large. The Zambezi River Authority has initiatives with more than 5,000 MW of renewable potential. They include the 2,400 MW Batoka Gorge Hydro-electric Scheme, now at the procurement preparedness and market engagement stages, and a 1,000 MW Kariba Floating Solar project, where pre-feasibility studies are complete and suitable lake locations have been identified. Batoka project coordinator Patrick Sipatela described the scheme as "more than a hydro power project," pointing to regional integration, climate resilience and growth. Government's headline ambition is 10,000 MW of generation by 2031, in support of the Grow Zambia Agenda.

Yet the president used the same speech to flag the next bottleneck. Transmission and distribution infrastructure, he said, is a weak link, and he called for more investment in it, including through platforms such as EFFA. New megawatts only help households and businesses if the wires, substations and distribution networks can carry them to where electricity is needed. The president also reaffirmed Zambia's commitment to a borderless energy future in which power flows across national borders, a theme reflected in the forum's title, "Driving a Borderless Future for Africa." Chanda said this year's conference will allow six regional power utilities to benchmark one another to improve regional energy integration.

Taken together, the figures show a country that has proved it can build clean generation quickly when policy, private capital and project delivery line up. The harder task now is to match that pace on the grid side, so the capacity on paper becomes reliable supply in practice, and so surplus power can be traded across the region rather than stranded.

WHY IT MATTERS

Zambia has shown that clean generation can be built in months rather than decades, with solar growing almost sixfold in two years. But electricity that cannot be transmitted is not energy access. The country's next test is whether grid investment can match the speed of solar delivery, because that is what turns 1,027.5 MW of panels into lights, clinics and factories.